India and China to Complete Military Disengagement at Depsang and Demchok by October 28-29: A Step Towards Stability

 

In a major development, India and China are poised to finalize the military disengagement process in the contested regions of Depsang Plains and Demchok along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) by October 28-29, 2024. This move aims to resolve longstanding border tensions and restore stability after years of standoff. Here’s what this significant agreement entails and its implications for India-China relations.

Background: The Prolonged LAC Standoff

The Line of Actual Control serves as the de facto boundary between India and China, stretching over 3,488 kilometers. Tensions along the LAC escalated sharply in April-May 2020 when Chinese troops made incursions into various disputed regions, leading to the deadly Galwan Valley clash in June 2020. Since then, both sides have been engaged in negotiations to de-escalate the situation, including multiple rounds of military and diplomatic talks. While partial disengagement was achieved at some friction points like Galwan, Gogra, and Pangong Tso, Depsang Plains and Demchok remained unresolved​.

What Does the Disengagement Agreement Involve?

The latest agreement focuses on:

1. Troop Withdrawal: Both countries will pull back troops from forward positions, restoring the patrolling arrangements that existed before the 2020 tensions.
2. Patrolling Mechanisms: Indian and Chinese forces will conduct patrols along their respective perceptions of the LAC, with mutual coordination to avoid conflict. Both sides have committed to monitoring these arrangements closely and exchanging patrol schedules to prevent misunderstandings​.
3. Establishment of Buffer Zones: These areas will act as a safeguard to reduce the risk of future clashes. Though previous buffer zones were created at points like Galwan and Pangong, this marks the first such arrangement for Depsang and Demchok.
4. Confidence-Building Measures: To foster trust, the agreement includes monthly meetings between local commanding officers and additional case-by-case discussions as needed​.

Why Are Depsang and Demchok Strategically Important?

• Depsang Plains: Located near the critical Daulat Beg Oldie post and the Karakoram Pass, Depsang's flat terrain makes it a potential launchpad for military operations. Chinese advances had previously blocked Indian access to key patrolling points in this area.
• Demchok: Situated in southern Ladakh, this region serves as an important gateway to the broader Indus Valley. Chinese troops had maintained a presence here, complicating India's patrolling efforts​.

Resolving the disputes at these locations could significantly stabilize the situation along the LAC and allow for better focus on other pressing issues.

Implications for India-China Relations

The disengagement at Depsang and Demchok may open the door for further diplomatic dialogue and potentially pave the way for a broader resolution of the LAC disputes. While this agreement addresses two of the remaining friction points, concerns linger about areas like Pangong Tso, where China has fortified its infrastructure, indicating that a complete resolution will require ongoing efforts.

• Improving Bilateral Ties: A reduction in military tension is likely to ease strained relations, which had hit a low point following the 2020 clashes.
• Economic Cooperation Opportunities: With military tensions potentially on the decline, there could be room for both nations to explore enhanced economic and trade partnerships.
• Regional Security Impact: Stabilizing the LAC is not just crucial for India and China, but also for regional peace in South Asia. The border conflict had implications for broader security dynamics, including potential alignments and military strategies of neighboring countries​.

Moving Forward: What Comes Next?

While the scheduled disengagement marks a significant step forward, the broader LAC dispute remains unresolved. The success of the agreement will depend on adherence to the terms and continued confidence-building measures. As both sides prepare to reduce their military presence, it remains to be seen whether this progress can be sustained and expanded to other contentious regions along the LAC.

The agreement demonstrates a willingness from both India and China to manage their differences diplomatically. If successful, it could serve as a foundation for resolving the remaining border issues and potentially improving overall bilateral relations.